New York - Rising Populist Tide Echoes Trump's 2016 Win, In a concerning trend mirroring the populist upheaval that preceded Donald Trump's 2016 presidential victory, far-right parties with anti-immigrant, economically populist platforms have made sweeping gains in recent European parliamentary elections. These wins could portend a potential comeback for Trump's "America First" agenda in the 2024 US presidential race.
While American voters take their cues from domestic politics rather than foreign affairs, the potent themes of controlling immigration, addressing economic woes, and pushing back against perceived globalist overreach clearly resonated across Europe. Trump is already hitting hard on these very issues as he ramps up his campaign in crucial battleground states.
Incumbents on the Ropes Against Populist Anger
A key takeaway is that incumbents are vulnerable to voter frustrations over high inflation and economic pain. At the upcoming G7 summit, President Biden will be joined by several politically diminished Western leaders reeling from election setbacks against populist, far-right forces.
France's Macron Gambles to Stop Le Pen's Rise
In a daring move, French President Emmanuel Macron has called snap legislative elections after his centrist party was routed by Marine Le Pen's rebranded far-right National Rally in the EU vote. While Le Pen has moderated some positions to broaden her appeal, Macron is making an high-stakes bet that higher turnout can thwart her rise and defend democratic norms.
The High Stakes for Biden and Democracy
While the US political landscape differs, Biden cannot ignore the forces powering this European populist swell - the same forces that lifted Trump to victory in 2016. The President made a plea to uphold democracy during the D-Day commemorations alongside Macron last week.
Now, the world will watch whether France can fend off its own populist threat when it heads to the polls on July 7th - a result that could have major implications for Biden's battle to thwart another Trump insurgency and protect democratic values at home.